The Remarkable Downsizing of the Podcast Industry

 Apple has silently adjusted how it reports podcast listener numbers, causing a ripple effect in the struggling audio industry still grappling with the aftermath of the COVID production slowdown. The change, explained in an Apple blog post, was technical: the podcast giant started turning off automatic downloads for users who haven't listened to five episodes of a show in the last two weeks.

While the change went unnoticed by many users, some of the world's most popular podcasts experienced a significant drop in their official listener numbers. Shows that publish frequently, especially long-running ones, were hit the hardest. Under the old rules, users who listened to a few episodes, subscribed, and then stopped listening still counted as a download indefinitely. Additionally, if someone resumed listening after a hiatus, Apple would automatically download all the missed episodes, contributing to inflated download numbers crucial for ad sales.

For instance, shows like The Daily and Dateline boasted over a billion total downloads, but the accuracy of these figures is now uncertain. Though some of the biggest podcasts privately admitted seeing declines, none of the publishers would comment on the change.

The shift occurred without warning, surprising those working on audio at major publishers like The New York Times and NPR. Podcast industry insiders reported a significant decrease in downloads, ranging from single digits to as high as 40% for some shows.

Podcasters, including the top ten from Apple last year, have remained tight-lipped about the falling audience metrics. Apple frames the move as a natural evolution of its podcast product, claiming it provides a more realistic picture for users and advertisers. Industry groups, like podcast monetization trade group Sounds Profitable, supported the change, anticipating more accurate audience information and effective advertising.

However, the nascent subscription podcast business appears to be an early casualty. Apple admitted privately to some podcasters that unlistened bonus episodes and segments included in automatic download counts led to a higher likelihood of downloads stopping for listeners who missed a few episodes.

Podcast executives view these changes as part of a necessary shakeout in an industry that experienced rapid inflation and subsequent contraction. Privately, reactions vary from mild annoyance to genuine alarm. Some advertising deals were based on outdated audience assumptions, and the update may make it challenging for some shows to meet minimum download agreements.

The situation underscores the ongoing influence of tech platforms over media, reminiscent of past incidents like Facebook's inflated video metrics and Spotify's podcasting pullback that led to industry layoffs. Apple's seemingly minor adjustment has left even the biggest podcasts concerned about audience impact, revenue, and talent deals.

As a response, some major players are exploring alternatives. While Apple remains a partner for The New York Times, the publication launched its standalone audio app last year to establish a direct connection with fans and better insulate itself from platform changes.

The podcast industry, already dealing with cuts and downsizing, faces yet another challenge, as indicated by Hot Pod, a podcast newsletter, which highlighted the change last year, noting it as another blow to an industry that endured various setbacks over the previous year. Global podcast publisher Acast anticipated a 10% decrease in total downloads due to the change.

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